March 12th, 2009
Pakistan - America’s Next Big Hurdle
Amid growing concerns surrounding the international financial crisis and Iran and North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs, a looming global upheaval is being placed on the back burner. The increasing instability in Pakistan is a serious problem, and one that potentially has global consequences. According to Hassan Abbas, Fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, “there is an emerging consensus among foreign policy experts that the growing insurgency and militancy in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) poses the greatest security challenge not only to Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also to the United States.”1 A Taliban insurgency is spreading throughout Pakistan, whose already weak central government is losing control of its territory. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and under a weak and destabilized or a failed state, those weapons run the risk of falling into the hands of terrorist organizations. Growing anti-American sentiment in Pakistan provides one more worry for the U.S. in terms of both nuclear capabilities and terrorism, at a time when U.S. capabilities are stretched thin. A destabilized Pakistan has serious consequences for the U.S. and the international community as a whole, and is a pressing issue that needs to take a top spot on the international agenda.
The problem with Pakistan
One of the biggest challenges facing Pakistan currently is the growing insurgency in the Northwest region, which is causing a serious security dilemma. Along the Afghan border, the Pakistani Taliban is seizing control of many of the tribal villages, spreading violence, and requiring strict observance of Islamic law. Citizens of these villages are being killed in the crossfire or beheaded by Taliban insurgents; those that can are fleeing the villages, creating an increasing refugee problem. Due to the lack of regional state control, the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) provides a safe haven for Afghani Taliban and Al Qaeda members to regroup and has the potential to become a breeding ground for terrorist activity. Recent terrorist attacks in India by Pakistan based terrorist groups have increased tensions between the two countries, and the inability of the government to crack down on terrorist organizations does not provide much hope that the situation will soon be remedied.
While the Pakistani military has been sent in to push back the militant groups, unfortunately this strategy is not working. Following the turnover of military rule last year, Pakistan faces a weak central government and a President who lacks control over the military and intelligence services. Rumors persist regarding the complacency of the military and intelligence services towards the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which was responsible for the attacks on Mumbai. The military cannot, or will not, establish control over the insurgency, and continues to consider India as its most pressing national security problem. The lack of civilian control of the military continues to intensify the problem, and the insurgency is spreading deeper into other regions of Pakistan, creating large pockets of instability.
Following closely on the heels of the wave of insurgency and the lack of state control, Pakistan’s recent economic woes further destabilize the situation. The economic situation in Pakistan is rapidly declining, leaving millions in poverty. The textile industry, responsible for half of the industrial jobs in Pakistan is suffering, with over a third of textile factories being shutdown. Pakistan is facing declining currency reserves, high inflation levels, and the devaluation of the rupee. Last November, Pakistan requested a $7.6 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Combined with the increasing power of the Taliban and other insurgents, Pakistan provides a ripe setting for engaging new recruits. Greed versus grievance arguments of the causes of civil war argue that conflict often occurs when insurgent groups have a large population of civilian suffering to recruit from, a problem which Pakistan is facing with increasing intensity.
Implications for the global community
The U.S. needs to pay careful attention to the growing problems in Pakistan and focus on preventing another country from being controlled by militant groups with a vengeance against the U.S. There are several avenues the U.S. can take to assist the central government in Pakistan with regaining control of the country and preventing a Taliban takeover. First, the U.S. must work to reduce anti-American sentiment in Pakistan; otherwise, any U.S. based assistance is likely to further reduce the credibility of the central government. The Obama administration has taken a positive step by sending Special Representative Richard Holbrooke to assess the situation in Pakistan and meet with key government officials. The U.S. must continue to build support in Pakistan and work closely with the government to halt the proliferation of terrorist groups and Taliban control. To assist the government in bringing the military back under civilian control, the U.S. should continue providing military aid, conditioned upon Pakistan using the aid to fight against the Taliban, rather than India. Finally, the U.S. should provide economic aid to Pakistan, to help shore up the economy and prevent a large population of poor young men that are easy to recruit into insurgent groups.
Written by Holly Lindamood, Program Director and Research Associate
Daisy Alliance
- http://www.ispu.org/files/PDFs/fata_report.pdf [↩]
